Population: Issues and Challenges
Milad Bagi
Abstract
Considering the age structure change and macro-level socioeconomic transformations that Iran has experienced, marriage trends are expected to change between different periods and cohorts. This paper aimed to examine the periodic and generational changes in marriage and the determinants of marriage probability ...
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Considering the age structure change and macro-level socioeconomic transformations that Iran has experienced, marriage trends are expected to change between different periods and cohorts. This paper aimed to examine the periodic and generational changes in marriage and the determinants of marriage probability over the last four decades using the multilevel age-period-cohort method. For this purpose, Household Income and Expenditure Survey data were analyzed. The findings showed that in both sexes, younger cohorts delay their marriage compared to older cohorts and marry at older ages. The percentage of married women in all cohorts is higher than men until age 35, but at older ages, the opposite will be true. Periodic trends confirm these results. Age-period-cohort analysis revealed women have married earlier than men in all periods and cohorts, but the marriage probability of women is less than men. Tertiary education and employment were crucial determinants in reducing the probability of marriage among various periods and cohorts. The breadwinner male model of the Iranian family has caused employment to increase the marriage probability of men and decrease the women’s marriage probability. Given the tertiary education expansion and prolongation of the education, providing appropriate policies and programs for youth employment is needed to prevent further delay in youth marriage. Therefore, planners need to consider the changes in family and community over the past decades in policymaking.
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