Demography
R. Sadeghi
Abstract
considered as an axis and center of development and social changes. Almost all aspects of our lives and the world around us have been influenced by demographic changes, which apart from having an effect on social, economic, and environmental sub-systems; have also been a source of significant changes ...
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considered as an axis and center of development and social changes. Almost all aspects of our lives and the world around us have been influenced by demographic changes, which apart from having an effect on social, economic, and environmental sub-systems; have also been a source of significant changes in these domains. In the 20th century, Iran has gone through numerous social transformations, in a way that this century can be called an era of social transformations. Our times at the beginning and the end of the century are much different, and population has been one of the most important components of this difference. The future, too, will certainly be different, partly due to ongoing demographic changes. In fact, demographic changes and everything related to them have all created the present that seems alien compared to the past, and they are creating a future that will be strange today. Over the past half a century, the majority of population was concentrated in rural areas but today they mostly live in urban centers; most of the population in the past was illiterate but now they are mostly literate; people lived in large families but now they have smaller households, also over the past few decades there were talks about the population explosion, especially those of youth, but today, the declining and aging population are the issues of discussions.Therefore, the only fixed point about human populations is that they are never static but are always dynamic and changing. As such, one should have a vibrant view on the population and adopt favorable and dynamic policies and programs in accordance with demographic changes and foresight in order to take advantage of opportunities and deal with challenges. Nevertheless, population opportunities and challenges are always evolving and becoming permanent. In other words, the nature and type of demographic opportunities and challenges are different over time. Hence, the formulation of population policies and programs in any era requires determining harmful and problem-creating aspects of demographic trends on the one hand, and the opportunities arising from them on the other. Although all periods and stages of the population transition necessitate policy-making but those policies probably may not be as sensitive, necessary and effective as in recent years. In this regard, taking into account the emerging demographic issues as well as their recent and future trends, the Islamic Republic of Iran revised its population policies, which were finally announced by the leader of the Islamic Revolution on May 30, 2013. These policies, compiled in 14 paragraphs, are related to pivotal issues such as: Increasing fertility above the succession level; facilitating marriage and family formation; empowering working-age population; managing migration and domestic and international movements; aging population and using the capacity and capabilities of the elderly; improving social health and quality of life, etc. As such, general population policies are one of the most comprehensive existing policy documents with a dynamic and systemic approach to current and future challenges and opportunities and that have been compiled taken into account the country’s various economic, socio-cultural, health and environmental dimensions. However, the success of policies and programs depends on various factors such as, coherent and sustainable budget and programs; stable and coherent policy, improvement in socio-economic situation, social acceptance, and the support for population studies and researches.In this special quarterly, population dimensions and issues in Iran in three areas of marriage, fertility and immigration have been investigated and researched upon using an interdisciplinary approach in the form of six scientific articles: ‘Spouse-choosing styles of young people in the context of developmental idealism’; ‘Generational and seasonal changes in marriage’; ‘Fertility tendencies and their determinants’; ‘The sense of security and childbearing intention’; ‘Mothers and the upbringing of the generation with emphasis on social concerns of mothers in relation to parenting’; and, ‘The inclination to emigrate from Iran’. In the end, I hope that this special issue with the efforts of some faculty members, demographic researchers and reviewers of the articles as well as with the support of the respected editor and members of the editorial board, apart from industrious efforts and follow-up by Ms. Mahnaz Shah-Alizadeh, the executive director of the quarterly, would be fruitful for researchers and policy-makers.
Demography
Ramin Taghavi; A. Ahmadi; A. Mirfardi; M. Rajabi
Abstract
In recent decades, many values and social norms in Iran have undergone changes and transformations in parallel with widespread changes around the world. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of developmental idealism beliefs on styles the spouse selection among youths. The research method ...
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In recent decades, many values and social norms in Iran have undergone changes and transformations in parallel with widespread changes around the world. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of developmental idealism beliefs on styles the spouse selection among youths. The research method is based on a survey and the data collection tool is a questionnaire. As a matter of fact, the data was collected through a survey of 608 young people in Yasuj. Findings indicate that there is a significant relationship between the variables of religiosity, developmental idealism, gender attitudes, and attitudes toward the spouse selection. The variables of materialism, cyberspace and Internet use as well as individualism did not have significant relationship with spouse selection styles. According to the final research model, the five variables that were most related to the spouse selection were in accordance with their importance i.e., religiosity, developmental idealism, age and education of the parents. Based on the final model of path analysis, the variables of age, religiosity of parents' education and gender attitudes have had a direct effect on spouse selection styles. The variables of individualism being male, cyberspace use, and attitudes toward marriage have indirectly influenced selection styles through developmental idealism.
Demography
M. Bagi
Abstract
Considering changes to the age structure of the population and macro-level socioeconomic transformations that Iran has experienced, marriage trends between different periods and generations are expected to go along with a change. This paper aims to examine periodic and generational changes in marriage ...
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Considering changes to the age structure of the population and macro-level socioeconomic transformations that Iran has experienced, marriage trends between different periods and generations are expected to go along with a change. This paper aims to examine periodic and generational changes in marriage and the determinants of marriage probability over the last four decades using the multilevel age-period-cohort method. For this purpose, the data from the Households Income and Expenditure Survey were analyzed. The findings showed that in both sexes, younger cohorts delay their marriage compared to the older ones and hence marry at older ages. The percentage of married women in all cohorts is higher than men until 35 years, but at older ages, there is an opposite tendency. Periodic trends confirm these results. The age-period-cohort analysis reveals women marry earlier than men in all periods and cohorts, but the marriage probability among them is less than men. Tertiary education and employment are found to be crucial variables in reducing the probability of marriage in different periods and cohorts but their impacts are varied in two sexes. The breadwinner male model of the Iranian family i.e., employment has led to the increase in marriage probability of men but at the same time decrease the women’s marriage probability. Given the expansion of higher education and the prolongation of the education period, it is expected that in case of lack of appropriate policies and programs for youth, the delay in marriage with continue. In this way, planners need to take into account the changes that have taken place at family and community levels over the past decades in their policies.
Demography
A. Abbasi; R. Sadeghi; A. Maleki; G. Balakhani
Abstract
This paper uses a meta-analysis to comparatively evaluate the factors related to fertility attitudes, desires, and intentions in Iranian studies. The analysis is based on 26 studies, 16 of which are about fertility desires and intentions, and 10 are about childbearing attitudes. The results suggest that ...
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This paper uses a meta-analysis to comparatively evaluate the factors related to fertility attitudes, desires, and intentions in Iranian studies. The analysis is based on 26 studies, 16 of which are about fertility desires and intentions, and 10 are about childbearing attitudes. The results suggest that several factors have negative effect on fertility desires and intentions such as: education; marriage age; number of children; social-economic participation; individualism; attitude to employment; foreign media and the internet. Age; rural living; income; religiosity; social protection; number of siblings; and life quality have positive effect on fertility desires and intentions. Among these factors, individualism (-0/296) and number of children (-0/224) have the most effect. The results also suggest that income and age difference between spouses have positive effect on childbearing attitude, whereas, cultural investment, education, social-economic status, age, and virtual networks have negative effect on childbearing attitudes, in which income (0/272) and age (0/258) have the most effect. Therefore, there are a lot of social factors which play important roles in determining childbearing in Iran and therefore, social planners need to pay attention to them.
Demography
F. Modiri; F. Tanha
Abstract
Due to persistence of fertility below the replacement level and the need to identify relevant factors, this article focuses on the impact of security feeling on the number of children ever born, ideal, intention, and intending to have another child. Using data from married lifestyle survey, 1189 married ...
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Due to persistence of fertility below the replacement level and the need to identify relevant factors, this article focuses on the impact of security feeling on the number of children ever born, ideal, intention, and intending to have another child. Using data from married lifestyle survey, 1189 married men and women in Tehran, in which, the woman with less than 50 years old and fertile were selected in a multi-stage clustering sampling method and used in the final analysis. The results showed that an average ideal children number in the respondents was more than two children (2.13%), the intended children number 1.91%, the number children ever born was less than the replacement level (1.41%) while 36.9% intended to have another child. There was a significant relationship between the feeling of security and the number of children ever born, ideal and intention. Logistic regression models have shown a significant effect of the feeling of security on childlessness or having one and two children. Policy suggestions in order to increase childbearing are based on a suitable context to reduce risky situations and increase the feeling of security in various economic, public, judicial and political domains, including job security and adequate income, political stability and immunity from any offense.
Demography
F. Jafari-Sirizi; A. Askari-Nodoushan; A. Ruhani
Abstract
Childbearing and child-rearing are the fruits of the couple's life together, but in the balance of duties and responsibilities, the mother's burden is unequally heavier than the father. Therefore, sufferings and difficulties of childbearing and parenting are mainly placed on the mother’ shoulders. ...
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Childbearing and child-rearing are the fruits of the couple's life together, but in the balance of duties and responsibilities, the mother's burden is unequally heavier than the father. Therefore, sufferings and difficulties of childbearing and parenting are mainly placed on the mother’ shoulders. Cultural contexts are an important and key element in defining the extent and structure of mothers’ duties and responsibilities with regard to their children. However, the challenges, concerns and difficulties of mothers in the field of child-rearing and parenting have been less in the focus of social and cultural research. The aim of this paper is to examine these issues and challenges. The research was conducted using the critical qualitative method of Carspecken and the research data were collected based on in-depth interviews with fifteen mothers who had children under the age of two. Findings showed the tensions/concerns/challenges of parenting, low collaboration of men in parenting, growing expectations of the child, the need for peaceful and loving in the context of family relationships and so on. Based on the results, the difficulties of the mother and her overwhelming concerns about raising a child have multiplied in the face of rapid social and cultural changes of the contemporary period. Therefore, the promotion of social and family support for the role of the mother in the field of parenting, providing welfare and leisure facilities for the mother and providing parenting education through educational institutions and cultural media is emphasized by the results of the present study.
Demography
A. Abdollahi; M. Rezaee
Abstract
Nowadays, international migration is one of the most important factors affecting population dynamics and changes, which has also turned the attention of both researchers and policymakers. Understanding factors that underlie the desire to migrate has an impact on future migration tendencies and trends. ...
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Nowadays, international migration is one of the most important factors affecting population dynamics and changes, which has also turned the attention of both researchers and policymakers. Understanding factors that underlie the desire to migrate has an impact on future migration tendencies and trends. The aim of the present study is to identify the extent of Iranians' desire to go abroad and the impact of demographic-contextual and structural factors on it. The methodology applied here is the secondary analysis of micro-data of the National Social Capital Survey of 2018. The sample includes 17078 people aged 18 and above living in 31 provinces of the country. According to the research findings, 42% of the respondents are willing to emigrate and are considered as potential immigrants. The results showed that people with a tendency to emigrate are often single, young (18 to 49 years old), with university education, middle class and living in cities. Also, the results of bivariate analysis of the relationship between structural factors (social satisfaction, social hope and vitality, sense of social security and assessment of the future of the country) showed that all these have a negative and significant connection with the tendency to emigrate abroad. Finally, based on the results of multivariate analysis (logistic regression), by controlling demographic and contextual variables, the level of social hope and vitality and the assessment of future situation of the country, still have a significant effect on the tendency to migrate.