Scenario planning for futures of education system of Iran taking account growing capabilities of Artificial Intelligence
Volume 18, Issue 3, Summer 2026, Pages 5-41
https://doi.org/10.22035/isih.2026.5542.5159
Omid Khodabakhshian, Ali Asghar Pourezzat, Ebrahim Mazari
Abstract The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has raised important questions about the future of educational systems. This study examines possible future scenarios for Iran’s education system in response to the growing influence of AI. Data were collected through library and field research, and participants were selected from among experts, university professors, and specialists using purposive sampling. Initially, 35 driving forces were identified through a literature review. Using literature analysis, a Likert-scale questionnaire, expert interviews, and MICMAC software, 18 influential drivers and 4 key drivers were determined. Based on their importance and uncertainty, two key factors—interactive learning and teacher–student collaboration—were selected as the main axes for scenario development. Applying the Global Business Network (GBN) method, four scenarios were developed: Smart Era, Conservative Choices, Reckless Dehumanization, and Alienated Human. The Smart Era scenario envisions an education system that combines AI with active human participation to enhance creativity, critical thinking, and educational equity. In contrast, the Reckless Dehumanization and Alienated Human scenarios highlight the risks of diminished human involvement, weakened social interaction, and excessive reliance on technology. The Conservative Choices scenario suggests that technological advancement alone cannot transform education without effective human cooperation and engagement. The findings emphasize that the future impact of AI on education depends not only on technological development but also on the extent to which human interaction and collaboration are preserved within the learning process.
The role of values in Futures Studies; Guidelines for enhancing research quality
Volume 17, Issue 2, Spring 2025, Pages 101-143
https://doi.org/10.22035/isih.2025.5478.5116
Shahriar Shirooyehpour, Morteza Anoosheh, Safar Fazli, Mohammad Aniseh, Einollah Keshavarz Turk
Abstract In recent decades, philosophers of science have focused on how science is influenced and structured by values. This view stands in contrast to the ideal of "value-free science," which views the intrinsic involvement of non-cognitive values in scientific practice as destructive. However, today, there are many criticisms of this ideal, and it is referred to as a "bad ideal." It is now widely accepted that values and value judgments are involved in various ways of scientific practice—from selecting research projects to evaluating and accepting scientific results. This issue holds even greater importance in futures studies as a value-laden science, given its humanistic and interdisciplinary/transdisciplinary nature, which seeks to shape and construct the future. Accordingly, this article examines the role and influence of values in futures studies to clarify which forms of value involvement are legitimate and which are not. To address this question, two approaches are adopted: first, proposing a typology of values based on their goals, and second, distinguishing between the direct and indirect roles of values. Then, an attempt is made to adapt these approaches to the futures studies literature. Finally, we argue that considering these aspects can provide futurists with a framework for understanding the role and structure of values, potentially enhancing the quality, credibility, and authority of futures studies.
Keywords: desert, merit, entrepreneurship, duoethnography
In recent decades, philosophers of science have focused on how science is influenced and structured by values. This view stands in contrast to the ideal of "value-free science," which views the intrinsic involvement of non-cognitive values in scientific practice as destructive. However, today, there are many criticisms of this ideal, and it is referred to as a "bad ideal." It is now widely accepted that values and value judgments are involved in various ways of scientific practice—from selecting research projects to evaluating and accepting scientific results. This issue holds even greater importance in futures studies as a value-laden science, given its humanistic and interdisciplinary/transdisciplinary nature, which seeks to shape and construct the future. Accordingly, this article examines the role and influence of values in futures studies to clarify which forms of value involvement are legitimate and which are not. To address this question, two approaches are adopted: first, proposing a typology of values based on their goals, and second, distinguishing between the direct and indirect roles of values. Then, an attempt is made to adapt these approaches to the futures studies literature. Finally, we argue that considering these aspects can provide futurists with a framework for understanding the role and structure of values, potentially enhancing the quality, credibility, and authority of futures studies.
Effectiveness of assertiveness and stress management training on family process and mental well-being of female-headed households
Volume 17, Issue 2, Spring 2025, Pages 145-174
https://doi.org/10.22035/isih.2025.5307.5028
Masoud Salmani Bidgoli, Ameneh Sedighian Bidgoli
Abstract In recent decades, philosophers of science have addressed the question of how science is influenced and shaped by values. This view stands in contrast to the ideal of “value-free science,” which considers the internal involvement of non-cognitive values in scientific practice to be detrimental. Today, however, this ideal has been widely criticized and is regarded as flawed. It is now accepted that values and value judgments intervene in various stages of scientific activity—from decision-making about the selection of research projects to the evaluation and acceptance of scientific results. The significance of this issue is heightened in futures studies as a value-laden science, since it is a pragmatic, human-centered, and inter/transdisciplinary field that seeks to shape and construct the future. Accordingly, this article examines the place and major roles of values in futures studies to clarify which forms of value involvement are legitimate and which are not. To address this question, two approaches are adopted: 1) presenting a typology of values according to their purposes, and 2) distinguishing between the direct and indirect roles of values. These approaches are then aligned with the literature and foundations of futures studies. Attention to these issues can provide futurists with a framework for understanding the ways in which values and their structures play a role, thereby influencing the quality, credibility, and authority of futures studies.
Topical meta-synthesis and critical review of interdisciplinary research on futures studies
Volume 14, Issue 3, Summer 2022, Pages 86-49
https://doi.org/10.22035/isih.2022.4817.4719
M. Taheri Demneh, A. Zackery, A. Asadnia
Abstract The movement from intra-disciplinary toward inter-disciplinary approaches by focusing on real-world problems is a growing trend in higher education. Thus, next generation universities will move toward inter-disciplinary discourses. In the meantime, systematic studies of futures or futures studies have also been considered by academics in various fields. In this qualitative meta-synthesis, an attempt is made to investigate the status of future-oriented studies in various disciplines in order to map the distribution these studies. Through a rigorous selection process, 737 articles were chosen and categorized into 19 main categories and 350 secondary categories which were correspondingly classified under more detailed sub-categories. The results indicate that geographical planning, security, and corporate foresight have had the highest application of futures studies. By contrast, sports, women’s studies and futures of professions had the lowest number of articles. This paper highlights the conspicuous gaps in future-oriented interdisciplinary researches along with their strength and weaknesses.
Structural analysis of key factors and identification of driving forces of future faculty promotion regulations in Iran’s higher education over horizon 2035
Volume 14, Issue 3, Summer 2022, Pages 123-155
https://doi.org/10.22035/isih.2022.4663.4603
A. Rezayan, E. Marzban, A.H. Rezayan, M. Marzban
Abstract The purpose of this study is to identify and determine key factors, emerging trends and driving forces in the development of future faculty promotion regulations (FPR) and evaluate the structural relationship between key factors over the Horizon 2035. For this purpose, relying on a mixed methodology and using the literature review, interviews, the cross-impact analysis matrix, MicMac software and expert panels, key factors are identified and the relationship of influence and dependence between them are structurally analyzed. As a result, five forces including "Discourse governing higher education in Iran", "Society (industry, market and government) expectation of higher education", "Economics of higher education", "Competitiveness and internationalization of higher education" and "Emerging challenges and development of Interdisciplinary sciences" are considered as drivers of change in the subject of research and the function and influence of each in the future of the faculty promotion system is explained. Accordingly, upgrading future editions of FPR requires alignment with the identified drivers, considering structural complexities between key factors and adapting to changes in the social, economic and political environment through interdisciplinary and futuristic approaches.
Future study in higher education: designing a strategic corridor of Iranian university sports with an interdisciplinary approach
Volume 14, Issue 3, Summer 2022, Pages 157-193
https://doi.org/10.22035/isih.2022.4544.4506
J. Shahvali Kohshouri, A.R. Askari, R. Nazari, A.R. Naghsh
Abstract Sports science and future studies have both emerged as an interdisciplinary field in the world. Interdisciplinary studies is one of the areas that has grown in parallel with these two, and have had a tangible and fundamental impact on them and have been influenced by them. Interdisciplinary research is very important, especially in the field of sports, which has ambitious goals in addition to its health-oriented nature. Therefore, a strategic corridor for the development of Iranian university sports was emerged in this article, by using the scenario tool as one of the future research methods. Exercises in universities are an institutional form of the physical education trend for a healthy and active life. The participants of the present analytical and exploratory study included 34 domestic and foreign individuals interested in Iranian university sports who were selected based on the purposive sampling. Data were collected through interviews and open questionnaires. Based on the findings, analysis of 30 main factors eventually led to production of two key uncertainties of "joining the global sports movement" and "systematization of sustained physical activity", which became the basis for the development of four scenarios named Damavand, Tafakhr, Rooz-az-No and physics. In order to develop the Iranian university sports, separate policies should be developed in different domains of university sports based on sustainable physical activities.
Qualitative meta-analysis of futures studies in higher education in Iran: case study of the futures studies desk in higher education
Volume 14, Issue 3, Summer 2022, Pages 227-250
https://doi.org/10.22035/isih.2022.4737.4661
R. Maniee, H. Kamali
Abstract The main theme of futures studies in higher education is the systematic identification of forces and drivers of change, opportunities and threats to change, designing a vision and a favorable future for higher education and an effective university, and designing effective strategies and actions to achieve a desirable future. Therefore, this study aims to outline the futures studies desk of higher education located in the Institute for Research and Planning in Higher Education during (2014 to 2021) as a systematic manifestation of futures studies in Iran. For this purpose, the qualitative meta-analysis method is used to analyze and integrate these studies with a comprehensive approach (quantitative and qualitative) in both form and content dimensions. Findings in the form of evidence indicate the continuation of desk studies in different years and the participation of a diverse range of stakeholders from the scientific and managerial body of universities, higher education and research institutions. On the other hand, in the content dimension of desk studies in five thematic categories including effective management and planning in higher education, evaluation and quality of universities and research centers, curriculum and university learning, information and communication technology and cyberspace in higher education, economics of higher education and university has been done that under each category, according to the conditions and requirements of the country, priority issues have been selected and studied in an interdisciplinary approach.
Social construction of Future Reality With emphasis on interdisciplinary studies
Volume 10, Issue 4, Summer 2018, Pages 1-22
https://doi.org/10.22035/isih.2018.286
A. Rezayan Ghayehbashi, A. Pourezzat
Abstract Organizations, community groups, elites, and government policies in many ways influence the process of future construction, while they are heavily influenced by various scholars. Based on the theories of social status and socialization, and the policy model for the elite of the masses, the future is continually being influenced by the individual and organizational elements that are active in the society, and these individuals and organizations, usually they formulate their actions with scientific justifications, which are taught in interaction with scientists and elites. Moreover, the scientific findings from the efforts of various scholars may be influenced by a set of theories focused on the implementation of the future world. Because these interdisciplinary sciences are the theoretical outcomes of various sciences and technologies, they affect theories and strategies of change and future transformation programs; the effect of the influence of knowledge in the general language, the logic of government agents, and the procedures Behavioral and constructive structure in the process of development of organizations and social institutions. This article discusses how the future is made. The process of constructing the future introduces the ultimate social components, linguistic facts, decision-making and active actors of actors (organizations, people, and elites). These components shape the future reality by influencing interdisciplinary sciences and their mutual influence on it.
