Scenario planning for futures of education system of Iran taking account growing capabilities of Artificial Intelligence
Volume 18, Issue 3, Summer 2026, Pages 5-41
https://doi.org/10.22035/isih.2026.5542.5159
Omid Khodabakhshian, Ali Asghar Pourezzat, Ebrahim Mazari
Abstract The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has raised important questions about the future of educational systems. This study examines possible future scenarios for Iran’s education system in response to the growing influence of AI. Data were collected through library and field research, and participants were selected from among experts, university professors, and specialists using purposive sampling. Initially, 35 driving forces were identified through a literature review. Using literature analysis, a Likert-scale questionnaire, expert interviews, and MICMAC software, 18 influential drivers and 4 key drivers were determined. Based on their importance and uncertainty, two key factors—interactive learning and teacher–student collaboration—were selected as the main axes for scenario development. Applying the Global Business Network (GBN) method, four scenarios were developed: Smart Era, Conservative Choices, Reckless Dehumanization, and Alienated Human. The Smart Era scenario envisions an education system that combines AI with active human participation to enhance creativity, critical thinking, and educational equity. In contrast, the Reckless Dehumanization and Alienated Human scenarios highlight the risks of diminished human involvement, weakened social interaction, and excessive reliance on technology. The Conservative Choices scenario suggests that technological advancement alone cannot transform education without effective human cooperation and engagement. The findings emphasize that the future impact of AI on education depends not only on technological development but also on the extent to which human interaction and collaboration are preserved within the learning process.
The role of values in Futures Studies; Guidelines for enhancing research quality
Volume 17, Issue 2, Spring 2025, Pages 101-143
https://doi.org/10.22035/isih.2025.5478.5116
Shahriar Shirooyehpour, Morteza Anoosheh, Safar Fazli, Mohammad Aniseh, Einollah Keshavarz Turk
Abstract In recent decades, philosophers of science have focused on how science is influenced and structured by values. This view stands in contrast to the ideal of "value-free science," which views the intrinsic involvement of non-cognitive values in scientific practice as destructive. However, today, there are many criticisms of this ideal, and it is referred to as a "bad ideal." It is now widely accepted that values and value judgments are involved in various ways of scientific practice—from selecting research projects to evaluating and accepting scientific results. This issue holds even greater importance in futures studies as a value-laden science, given its humanistic and interdisciplinary/transdisciplinary nature, which seeks to shape and construct the future. Accordingly, this article examines the role and influence of values in futures studies to clarify which forms of value involvement are legitimate and which are not. To address this question, two approaches are adopted: first, proposing a typology of values based on their goals, and second, distinguishing between the direct and indirect roles of values. Then, an attempt is made to adapt these approaches to the futures studies literature. Finally, we argue that considering these aspects can provide futurists with a framework for understanding the role and structure of values, potentially enhancing the quality, credibility, and authority of futures studies.
Keywords: desert, merit, entrepreneurship, duoethnography
In recent decades, philosophers of science have focused on how science is influenced and structured by values. This view stands in contrast to the ideal of "value-free science," which views the intrinsic involvement of non-cognitive values in scientific practice as destructive. However, today, there are many criticisms of this ideal, and it is referred to as a "bad ideal." It is now widely accepted that values and value judgments are involved in various ways of scientific practice—from selecting research projects to evaluating and accepting scientific results. This issue holds even greater importance in futures studies as a value-laden science, given its humanistic and interdisciplinary/transdisciplinary nature, which seeks to shape and construct the future. Accordingly, this article examines the role and influence of values in futures studies to clarify which forms of value involvement are legitimate and which are not. To address this question, two approaches are adopted: first, proposing a typology of values based on their goals, and second, distinguishing between the direct and indirect roles of values. Then, an attempt is made to adapt these approaches to the futures studies literature. Finally, we argue that considering these aspects can provide futurists with a framework for understanding the role and structure of values, potentially enhancing the quality, credibility, and authority of futures studies.
Future study of the employment status of humanities graduates in Iran: Productive view using the causal layer analysis method
Volume 16, Issue 1, Winter 2024, Pages 121-156
https://doi.org/10.22035/isih.2024.4975.4829
A. Omidvar, M. Niazi, E. Mazroui Nasrabadi, N. Khodakaramian Gilan
Abstract Humanities graduates have serious concerns about their employment status in the society. The increase in graduates in this field, especially due to the growing number of higher educational institutes in the country, requires policymakers to adopt more logical and practical measures to deal with the problem. Using future research, the current paper aims to draw a picture of the employment status of humanities graduates. The research method is qualitative, with the statistical population being professors and experts in the field of humanities. There is purposeful sampling method where the data collection tool was a semi-structured interview. After implementing the interviews, its components were identified at the level of litany, social causes, discourse/worldview and myth/metaphor. At the litany level, categories of "unemployment crisis", "abandoned and marginalized humanities", "inefficient/unskilled humanities" and "lack of independent identity" were created. At the level of systematic causes, a set of cultural-social and economic factors are marked as fundamental ones. At the level of discourse/worldview, product-oriented, post-modern, Islamic humanities and problem-oriented discourses were used. At the level of metaphor/myth, metaphorical interpretations of the boy of engineer, Professor Balthazar, the Achilles heel of national development and advanced/regressive sciences were used. Finally, with a literature review and referring to the interviews and going back and forth and asking the opinion of experts and specialists, the two driving forces of an engineering-like and top-down view against the provision of open intellectual and academic space and the policy of unifying sciences were found. In contrast to the development of interdisciplinary studies approach, four scenarios were identified and developed.
