Authors

1 Ph.D Student of Future Studies, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.‎

2 Professor, Future Studies, Imam Hossein University, Tehran, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran‎.

4 Assistant Professor of Demographics, University of Allameh Tabatabaei, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

The present paper aims to find the factors influencing population growth in metropolises and thus provide a model for population growth in large cities based on expert opinions. Considering the fact that the multiple factors associated with life in the metropolis, affecting immigration, fertility and mortality, are from different fields, including economic, social, and cultural domains, this article is of an interdisciplinary nature. In the present article while the theoretical concepts are reviewed, the important factors affecting population growth are identified, and then grouped and studied as economic, cultural and social, geographical, infrastructural and urban facilities factors; following that a basic conceptual model is extracted. In this paper, a researcher-made questionnaire is distributed among thirty experts on demography, sociology, and economics. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) applied in this study showed that the “economic factors” have the greatest impact on the population growth in the metropolis of Tehran; and socio-cultural, infrastructural and geographical factors and urban facilities have lesser impacts. Also, in the final prioritizing, of the eleven sub-factors, the sub-factors of occupation, income, lifestyle, individual values and the cost of living, which had the greatest weight, were analyzed. At the end, the final model of population growth in metropolises is provided.

Highlights

1. Identify the factors of population growth in large cities and in the form of "economic", "social and cultural", "geographical" and "infrastructure and urban facilities" have been classified.

2. “Economic factors” have the greatest impact on the population growth in the metropolis of Tehran.

3. Socio-cultural, infrastructural and geographical factors and urban facilities have lesser impacts.

4. The sub-factors of occupation, income, lifestyle, individual values and the cost of living, which had the greatest weight, in the eleven sub-factors.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Abedin Darkush, S. (1380/2001). Darāmadi bar eqtesād-e šahri [Introduction to urban economy]. Tehran, Iran: Markaz-e Našr-e Dānešgāhi.
Akbari Noori, R., Mosavi Khorshidi, R., & Golaij, M. R. (1391/2012). Ta’sirāt-e postmodernism dar barnāmerizi-ye šahri be onvān-e entezāmi miyānreštei [The Effects of post - modernist urban planning as an interdisciplinary order]. Motāle’āt-e Miyānreštei dar Olum-e Ensāni, 4(3), 33-59.   doi: 10.7508/isih.2012.15.003
Amani, S. M. (1387/2008). Mabāni-ye Jam’iyatšenāsi [Fundamentals of Population studies] (8th, ed.). Tehran, Iran: Sāzmān-e Motāle’e va Tadvin-e kotob-e Olum-e Ensāni-ye Dānešgāhhā (SAMT).
Andalib, A. (1390/2011). Čālešhā va naqšhā-ye čandgāne-ye towse’e-ye šahr-e Tehrān [Challenges and different roles of Tehran urban development]. Biannual Journlal of Modiriyat-e šahri, 9(27), 19-30.
Azimi, N. (1381/2002). Puyeš-e šahrnešini va mabāni-ye nezām-e šahri[Evolution of Urbanism and fundamentals of urban system]. Tehran, Iran: Našr-e Nikā.
Barnard, J., & Krautmann, A. (1988). Population Growth Among US Regions and Metropolitan Areas: A Test for Causality. Journal of Regional Science, 28(1):03-18.   doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9787.1988.tb01199.x.
Benenson, I., Omer, I., & Hatna, E. (2002). Entity modeling of urban residental dynamics: the case of Yaffo. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 29, 491-512.   doi:10.1068/b1287
Braimoh, A, K., & Onishi, T.  (2006). Spatial determinants of urban land use change in Lagos, Nigeria. AMS online journals, 8(21), 502-515.   doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2006.09.001.
Birman, E. (1376/1997). Modiriyat-e kalānšahrhā va estrātežihā-ye novin [Managment of metropolises and new strategies] (Y. Mohammadi, Trans.). Modirsāz, 0, 3-24.
Caldwell, J. (1982). Theory of fertility decline. London: Academic Press.
Capello, R., Camagni, R. (2000). Beyond optimal city size: an evaluation of alternative urban growth patterns. Urban Studies, 37(9),1479-1496. doi: 10.1080/00420980020080221.
Cheng, J., Masser, I. (2003). Urban growth pattern modeling: a case study of Wuhan city PR China. Landscape and Urban Planning, 62, 199-217.   doi:10.1016/S0169-2046(02)00150-0.
Cohen, B. J. (1388/2009). Mabāni-ye jāme’ešenāsi [Introduction to sociology] (Gh. Tavassoli, & R. Fāzel, Trans., 22nd ed.). Tehran, Iran: Sāzmān-e Motāle’e va Tadvin-e kotob-e Olum-e Ensāni-ye Dānešgāhhā (SAMT).
Dudley, K. (1966). Factors affecting Muslim natality. In B. Berelson (Ed.). Family planning and population programs (P. 5667 ). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Ebrahimzade, I., & Nasiri, Y. (1386). Šahrnešini-ye šetābān: Ravandhā va payāmadhā [Rapid urbanization: Processes and outcomes]. Ettelā’āt-e Siyāsi – Eqtesādi, 237-238, 232-241.
Espenshade, T. J. (1973). The cost of children in urban United State. Institute of International Studies, University of California.
Fallah Manšadi, E., Ruhi, A., & Sai’di Zand, P. (1391/2012). Barresi va erā’e-ye siyāsathā-ye dastyābi be haml-o naql-e paydār dar Tehrān [Study of achievement of sustainable transportation in Tehran and suggested policies]. Tehran, Iran: Markaz-e Motāle’at va Barnāmerizi-ye Šahr-e Tehrān.
Fazeli, M. (1382/2003). Sabk-e zendegi va masraf [Lifestyle and consumption]. Tehran, Iran: Pažuhešgah-e Farhang, Honar va Ertebātāt.
Forrester, J. W. (1969). Urban dynamics. Waltham, MA: Pegasus Communications.
Ghaffarzadegan, N., Lyneisb, J., & Richardsona, G. (2011). How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review, 27(1), 22-44.   doi: 10.1002/sdr.442.
Gholamalifard, M. (1385/2006). Erā’e-ye model-e makāni - zamāni-ye arzyābi-ye arze va taqāzā-ye zamin-e mahal-e dafn-e pasmānd-e jamed ba estefāde az modelsāzi puyāyi-ye šahri dar mohit-e GIS: Motāle’e-ye moredi-ye šahr-e Gorgān [Model of space - time evaluation of supply and demand of urban solid waste landfill using dynamic modeling in GIS: Case Study of Gorgān]. (M.A. Thesis). Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Nur, Iran. 
Gilbert, A. (2013). The Latin American mega-city: An introduction. United Nations University Press.
Hassan, M. S. (2010). The long-run relationship between population and per capita income growth in China. Journal of policy Modeling, 32, 355-372.   doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2009.09.005.
Heydari, H., Asghari, R., & Mohseni, J. (1391/2012). Ertebāt-e miyān-e rošd-e jam’iyat va rošd-e eqtesādi bā ta’kid bar goruhhā-ye sonnati-ye gunāgun [The relationship between population growth and economic growth, with emphasis on state’s expenses on different age groups of population]. Marefat-e Farhangi va Ejtemā’i, 4(1), 81-100.
Hu, Z., Lo, C. P. (2007). Modeling urban growth in Atlanta using logistic regression. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 31(6), 667-688. doi: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2006.11.001.
Huang, B., Zhang, L. Wu. B. (2009). Spatiotemporal analysis of rural-urban land coversion. International journal of Geographic Information Science, 23(3), 379-398.doi:10.1080/13658810802119685.
Irandoost, K. (1391/2012). Darāmadi bar māhiyat-e miyānreštei-ye joghrāfiyā-ye šahri va barnāmerizi-ye šahri [Introduction to the interdisciplinary nature of urban geography and urban planning]. Motāle’āt-e Miyānreštei dar Olum-e Ensāni, 4(3), 1-14. doi: 10.7508/isih.2012.15.001
Lahsaizade, A. (1379/2000). Sāxtār-e senni-ye jam’iyat [Population age structure]. Širāz, Iran: Navid-e Širāz.
Liu, Y., Phinn, S. R. (2003). Modelling urban development with cellular automata incorporating fuzzy-set approaches. Computers, Environment, and Urban Systems, 27, 37–58.  doi:10.1016/S0198-9715(02)00069-8.
Luo, J., Wei, Y. H. D. (2009). Modeling spatial variations of urban growth patterns in Chinese cities: The case of Nanjing. Landscape and Urban Planning, 91(2), 51-64.
Statistics Center of Iran (1390/2011). Natāyej-e saršomarihā-ye omumi-ye nofus va maskan [The results of population and housing censuses]. Reterived from http://amar.org.ir/census
Mehregān, M. R. (1383/2004). Pažuheš-e amaliyāti-ye pišrafte [Advanced operations research] (1st ed.). Tehrān: Entešārāt-e Ketāb-e Dānešgāhi.
Mills, E. S., Hamilton, B. W. (1375/1996). Eqtesād-e šahr [Urban Economics] (A. Kowsari, Trans.). Tehran, Iran: Markaz-e Motāle’āt va Tahqiqāt-e Šahrsāzi va Me’māri-ye Irān.
Mohebbi, F. (1392/2013). Sahm-e avāmel-e farhangi dar kontrol-e jam’iyat [share of cultural factor on Population Control]. Tehran, Iran: Šowrā-ye Farhangi Ejtemā’i-ye Zanān.
Mohammadi, Y. (1376/1997). Modiriyat-e kalānšahrhā va esterātežihā-ye novin [The managing metropolises and new strategies]. Modirsāz, 0, 3-24.
Moshfegh, M., & Moti'e Haghshenas, N. (1391/2012). Jam’iyat va towse’e [Population and development]. Tehrān: Markaz-e Motāle’āt va Pažuhešhā-ye Jam’iyati-ye Asiyā va Oqyānusiye.
Moshfegh, M., Mahmudi, M. J., & Moti'e Haghshenas, N. (1391/2012). Češmandāz-e tahavvolāt-e jam’iyati-ye Iran: Lozum-e Tajdid-e nazar dar siyāsathā-ye jam’iyati [Prospects of Iran›s Demographic Changes, the Necessity of Review in Population]. Faslnāme-ye Šorā-ye Farhangi – Ejtemā’i-ye Zanān va Xānevāde, 55, 151-172.
Mo’meni, I. (1388/2009). Pišbini-ye rošd-e Tehrān tā sāl-e 2050 bā estefāde az model-e SLEUTH [Tehran’s population growth forecasting until 2050 using SLEUTH modeling] (M. A. Thesis). Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, Iran.
Paul Shaw, R. (1975). Migration theory and fact: A review and bibliography of current literature. New York: Regional Science Research Institute.
Percoco, M. (2013). Geography, institutions and urban development: Italian cities, 1300-1861. Annals of Regional Science, 50(1), 135-152.   doi:10.1007/s00168-011-0482-0.
Pilevar, A. A., & Purahamad, A. (1383/2004). Ravand-e rošd va towse’e-ye kalānšahrhā-ye kešvar: Motāle’e-ye moredi-ye šahr-e Mašhad [The development trend of Iran big cities: Case study of Mašhad]. Pažuhešhā-ye Joghrāfiyāyi, 48, 103-121.
Poelmans, L., & Van Rompaey, A. (2009). Complexity and performance of urban expansion models. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 34(1), 17-27. doi:10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2009.06.001
Zhang, Q., Ban, Y., Liu, J., & Hu, Y. (2011). Simulation and analysis of urban growth scenarios for the Greater Shanghai Area. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 35, 126–139.   doi: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2010.12.002.
Rafi’i, M. (1370/1991). Tamarkoz-e Eqtesādi dar Tehrān [Economic Concentration in Tehran]. Ābādi, 1(1), 45.
Rafi’i, R. (1386/2007). Makānyābi-ye istgāhhā-ye enteqāl-e pasmānd-e jāmed-e šahri bā tavajjoh be ravand-e rošd-e šahr: Motāle’e-ye moredi-ye šahr-e Mašhad [Siting transfer stations for municipal solid waste emphasizing on City development: Case study of Mašhad]. (M.A. Thesis). College of Agriculture & Natural Resources (UTCAN), University of Tehran, Iran.
Riyazi, S. A. (1392/2013). Šahr; Padidei miānreštei [City as an Interdisciplinary Phenomenon]. Motāle’āt-e Miyānreštei dar Olum-e Ensāni, 6(1), 101-115.  doi: 10.7508/isih.2014.21.005
Tehran Municipality (1390/2011). Tarh-e jāme’-e haml-o naql va terāfik-e Tehrān [Comprehensive project of transportation and traffic in Tehran]. Tehran, Iran.
Sasanpur, F. (1390/2011). Mabāni-ye pāydāri-ye towse’e-ye kalānšahrhā ba ta’kid bar kalānšahr-e Tehrān [Principals of sustainability of metropolises, emphasizing on Tehran]. Tehran, Iran: Markaz-e motāle’at va barnāmerizi-ye šahr-e Tehrān.
Shefer D., & Steinvortz L. (1993). Rural-to-urban and urban-to-urban migration patterns in Colombia. Habitat International, 17(1), 133-150.   doi:10.1016/0197-3975(93)90050-M
Sliuzas, R. V. (2004). Managing informal settlements, a study using geo-information in Dar es Salaam. Tanzania: ITC Publication Series.
Sorur, R., & Ja’fari, F. (1388/2009). Tahlil-e ravand-e šahrnešini va āyandenegari-ye rošd-e sokunatgāhhā-ye gheyr-e rasmi dar mantaqe-ye kalānšahri-ye Tehrān [Urbanization trend and Foresight the growth of informal settlements in Tehran metropolitan area]. Joghrāfiyā-ye Iran, 7(23), 77-93.
Tamannā, S. (1386/2007). Mabāni-ye Jam’iyatšenāsi [Fundamentals of Population studies] (11th ed.). Tehran, Iran: Payām-e Nur University.
Tayyebiniyā, M. (1388/2009). Payāmadhā-ye mohājerat barāye xānevārhā-ye mohājer be šahr-e Tehrān [Consequences of migration of families to the city of Tehran]. Majalle-ye Motāle’āt va pažuhešhā-ye šahri va mantaqei. 1(1), 143-164.
Khamenei, S. A. (1393/2014). Siyāsathā-ye kolli-ye jam’iyat [General policies of population]. Retrieved from http://www.barnameh-bodjeh.ir/fa/RulesView.html?ItemID=264
Xie, C., Huang, B., Claramunt, C., & Chandramouli, C. (2005). Spatial logistic Regression and GIS to Model Rural-Urban Land Conversion. In: Proc. PROCESSUS Second International Colloquium on the Behavioural. Toronto. 12–15 June.
Khodayi , Z., & Poorkheiri, A. (1388/2009). Keyfiyat-e mohit-e šahri va naqš-e ān dar erteqā’-e rezāyat-e šahrvandān [The quality of urban environment and it’s role on promoting citizen’s satisfaction]. Pažuhešnāme, 36, 129-151.
Khubayand, S. (1379/2000). Ravešhā-ye asāsi-ye ta’min-e maskan-e goruhhā-ye kam darāmad-e šahri dar Iran: Motāle’e-ye moredi-ye Tabriz [Providing housing methods for low-income people of Iran: Case study of Tabriz people] (M.A. Thesis). Faculty of Social and Humanities Sciences, University of Tabriz, Tehran, Iran.
Yu-ping, C. N., & Heligman, L. (1377/1998). Rošd-e kalānšahrhā dar jahān [Growth of the world's megalopolises] (M. H. Hakimiyān, Trans.). Modirsāz, 1, 3-16. (Original work published in 1994)
Zanjani, H. (1380/2001). Mohājerat [Imigration]. Tehran, Iran: Sāzmān-e Motāle’e va Tadvin-e kotob-e Olum-e Ensāni-ye Dānešgāhhā (SAMT).
Zanjani, H., Shadpur, K., Mehryar, A., & Mirzayi, M. (1378/1999) Jam’iyat, towse’e va behdāšt-e bārvari [Population development & reproductive health]. Našr va tabligh-e Bošrā.
Zare’, B. (1392/2013). Jam’iyatšenāsi-ye eqtesādi va ejtemā’i [Socio-economic demography] (6th ed.). Tehran, Iran: Sāzmān-e Motāle’e va Tadvin-e kotob-e Olum-e Ensāni-ye Dānešgāhhā (SAMT). 
CAPTCHA Image