Document Type : Original Research Paper


1 Population Economic and Human Capital Department, National Institute for Population Studies, Tehran, Iran

2 Demography Department, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran



Nowadays, international migration is one of the most important factors affecting population dynamics and its changes, which is considered by researchers and policy makers. Understanding the factors that underlie the desire to emigrate abroad has an impact on identifying future migration tendencies and trends. The aim of the present study is to identify the extent of Iranians' desire to emigrate abroad and the impact of demographic-contextual and structural factors on it. The methodology is based on the secondary analysis of micro-data of the National Social Capital Survey in 1397. The sample number includes 17078 people aged 18 and over living in 31 provinces of the country. According to the research findings, 42% of the respondents are willing to emigrate abroad and are considered as potential immigrants. The results showed that people with a tendency to emigrate are often single, young (18 to 49 years old), with university education, middle class and living in cities. Also, the results of bivariate analysis of the relationship between structural factors (social satisfaction, social hope and vitality, sense of social security and assessment of the future of the country) showed that all these factors have a negative and significant relationship with the tendency to emigrate abroad. Finally, based on the results of multivariate analysis (logistic regression), by controlling demographic and contextual variables, only the level of social hope and vitality and assessment of the future situation of the country, still have a significant effect on the tendency to emigrate abroad.


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