Document Type : Original Research Paper
Authors
1
University of Tehran
2
Faculty of Management, University of Tehran
3
Faculty of Governance, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran
10.22035/isih.2026.5542.5159
Abstract
In this article, with the aim of examining the future scenarios of education system of Iran, taking into account the growing capabilities of artificial intelligence, an attempt has been made to visualize clear images of the future of this technology at the level of education in the country. The participating community was selected from among experts, professors, and scientific experts through a purposeful non-probability sampling method. The data collection method was also based on library and field studies. In this article, in the first step, 35 drivers were identified through library studies. Then, using literature analysis tools, Likert scale, interviews with experts, and MiqMaq software, 18 drivers were identified as influential drivers and 4 of them were identified as key drivers. After determining the importance and uncertainty of these drivers, finally two drivers, "interactive learning" and "teacher-student collaboration", were selected as the main axes of scenario writing. Accordingly, four scenarios with the titles " Smart Era”, “Conservative Choices”, “Reckless Dehumanization” and “Alienated Human” were developed using the GBN method. In the “Smart Era” scenario, Iranian education, by utilizing interactive learning and active human participation, becomes a platform for cultivating creativity, strengthening critical thinking, and realizing educational justice. In contrast, the “Reckless Dehumanization” and “Alienated Human” scenarios provide serious warnings about the gradual elimination of the human role, the disconnection of communication, and the dominance of machine approaches in the educational process. The “Conservative Choices” scenario also shows that even if technology and educational interaction are utilized, in the absence of human cooperation, real transformation in the educational system will not occur; an issue that is consistent with the.
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