Document Type : Original Research Paper
Authors
1
Master Futures Studies, Faculty of Governance ,University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2
Full Professor of Mannagement, Department of Public Administration and Organizational Sciences, Faculties of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
3
Assistant Professor of Education Governance, Faculty of Governance, Faculties of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) has raised important questions about the future of educational systems. This study examines possible future scenarios for Iran’s education system in response to the growing influence of AI. Data were collected through library and field research, and participants were selected from among experts, university professors, and specialists using purposive sampling. Initially, 35 driving forces were identified through a literature review. Using literature analysis, a Likert-scale questionnaire, expert interviews, and MICMAC software, 18 influential drivers and 4 key drivers were determined. Based on their importance and uncertainty, two key factors—interactive learning and teacher–student collaboration—were selected as the main axes for scenario development. Applying the Global Business Network (GBN) method, four scenarios were developed: Smart Era, Conservative Choices, Reckless Dehumanization, and Alienated Human. The Smart Era scenario envisions an education system that combines AI with active human participation to enhance creativity, critical thinking, and educational equity. In contrast, the Reckless Dehumanization and Alienated Human scenarios highlight the risks of diminished human involvement, weakened social interaction, and excessive reliance on technology. The Conservative Choices scenario suggests that technological advancement alone cannot transform education without effective human cooperation and engagement. The findings emphasize that the future impact of AI on education depends not only on technological development but also on the extent to which human interaction and collaboration are preserved within the learning process.
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